TODAY'S SESSION RECAP
Energy dominated MCX today as crude and natural gas both rallied on what appears to be supply tightness signals. MCX Crude surged +3.04% to close at ₹9787/bbl, the day's top mover, driven by seasonal refinery maintenance factors or resilient demand across Asian refineries. MCX Natural Gas followed with a +1.46% gain to ₹292.6/mmBtu. Precious metals diverged sharply: MCX Silver fell -1.15% to ₹194450/kg while MCX Gold retreated -0.37% to ₹143600/10g. Copper remained flat at +0.20% to ₹1400.2/kg. USD/INR held at ₹95.52, providing no directional tailwind to rupee-denominated commodities.
HOW MCX CLOSED VS THE DAY'S RANGE
Crude closed near mid-range after a bullish intraday structure — it hit ₹9873 (high) and retreated to ₹9617 (low), closing ₹9787 with 256 points of daily volatility. This represents a close 170 points below the day's high, suggesting some profit-taking into the session end. Natural Gas closed ₹292.6 after testing ₹296.2 (high) and ₹291.1 (low), finishing just 0.4 points below resistance — a tighter range signaling consolidation after gains.
WHAT COMEX IS DOING NOW
COMEX markets are currently extending the bullish tone: WTI Crude is up +1.73% at 101.63 $/bbl, confirming MCX's rally direction. Henry Hub Gas is surging +12.27% to 3.03 $/mmBtu — a sharp overnight spike. COMEX Gold is flat at +0.16%, while COMEX Silver is marginally negative at -0.08%. This divergence (energy strength vs. precious metals weakness) is holding overnight, signaling bullish energy sentiment into tomorrow's MCX open.
OVERNIGHT WATCH LIST
Crude: Watch ₹9796 (R1 resistance) and ₹9617 (S1 support) at tomorrow's open. COMEX crude continuation above 101.50 $/bbl would support a test of ₹9850+.
NatGas: ₹293 (R1) and ₹291 (S1) define the trading band. Henry Hub's +12% overnight spike demands close monitoring — weather forecasts for US production/heating demand due pre-market.
Precious Metals: Silver at ₹194450 — watch if USD strength accelerates overnight via Fed commentary.
Overnight watch: US crude inventory data (EIA release, typically 10:30 PM IST Thu) — any draws would confirm energy rally momentum into tomorrow's MCX open.