TODAY'S SESSION RECAP
MCX bearish across precious metals, bullish in energy. Gold led downside at ₹149540, down 1.29% on near-term profit-taking following last week's rally toward ₹151700. Silver tracked lower at ₹222950, -1.24%, invalidating support near ₹223000. Crude reversed into strength, closing ₹8983 +1.15%, as OPEC production data and tighter near-term supply offset broader demand concerns. NatGas extended its breakdown below ₹310, closing ₹302.3 -0.03% despite earlier volatility—US storage build above seasonal norms pressuring Henry Hub beneath 3.20.
HOW MCX CLOSED VS THE DAY'S RANGE
Gold closed ₹149540 near the session low (₹149159), retreating ₹2437 from high ₹151596. The close below midpoint signals intraday selling into support—a bearish structure for overnight. Silver mirrored this pattern: ₹222950 close near low ₹222652, fading ₹3212 range from ₹225864 peak. Both precious metals showed distribution into close, retracing morning gains.
Crude diverged: ₹8983 close near high ₹8998, anchored well above session low ₹8617, printing a bullish reversal structure—buyers defending 8900 support through final hour.
WHAT COMEX IS DOING NOW
COMEX Gold trading 4197.60 +0.17%, mildly positive but trailing MCX's deeper decline—suggesting overnight US demand stabilizing prices above intraday lows. WTI at 93.27 -0.50%, contradicting MCX's +1.15% rally. Copper flat. This COMEX-MCX divergence (gold soft, crude weak in US) signals caution for tomorrow's MCX open—overnight weakness may pressure crude off ₹9000, while gold could test ₹149000.
OVERNIGHT WATCH LIST
Gold resistance: ₹149936 (R1); support ₹149336 (S1), 20-day SMA ₹151040 (overhead).
Crude: Watch ₹8900 hold; break below signals retest ₹8617 low.
NatGas: ₹297.3 (today's low) critical; overnight US crude inventory report (EIA, Tuesday 10:30 am IST) will drive energy complex.
Overnight watch: US crude inventory and whether COMEX crude closes below 92.50—breach signals ₹8800 test at MCX open.