TODAY'S SESSION RECAP
NatGas dominated MCX today, closing at ₹282.6/mmBtu with a +3.55% gain — the session's clearest directional move. Weather forecast updates and US storage data sparked the rally, with the contract trading a ₹14 range (₹270–₹283.6). Crude Oil retreated sharply, closing at ₹8579/bbl, down -2.91% with a wider ₹479 range (₹8529–₹9008). The energy complex split: NatGas bulls dominated while crude sellers capitalized on US production resilience and demand concerns.
HOW MCX CLOSED VS THE DAY'S RANGE
NatGas closed near its session high of ₹283.6, settling just 100 paise below peak — a bullish structure indicating sustained buying into the final hour. The contract recovered strongly from intraday lows at ₹270, posting a +12.6 recovery move before close. Crude Oil, conversely, faded from its ₹9008 high, closing ₹429 lower — a bearish retrace that signaled profit-taking and failed resistance near the 20-day SMA of ₹8828. Both commodities showed directional clarity: NatGas held strength, Crude broke support.
WHAT COMEX IS DOING NOW
Henry Hub Gas is rallying +10.58% to 3.14 $/mmBtu — a sharp overnight confirmation of MCX's NatGas strength. WTI Crude is down -5.30% to 90.70 $/bbl, extending MCX's bearish pressure. COMEX Gold edges +0.11% to 4388.80 $/oz while COMEX Silver jumps +2.36% to 67.38 $/oz. The US session is confirming the energy divergence: gas bulls in control, crude under pressure — a bullish overnight setup for NatGas at tomorrow's MCX open.
OVERNIGHT WATCH LIST
Monitor NatGas resistance at ₹283 and support at the 20-day SMA of ₹277. Watch Crude for a hold above ₹8529 (today's low) — a break would signal further downside toward ₹8400. US crude inventory data (EIA release, likely 10:30 PM IST overnight) will be critical for crude direction. Henry Hub momentum (+10.58%) suggests NatGas may test ₹286 resistance at MCX open.
Overnight watch: US EIA crude inventory release — if draws exceed 2 MMbbl, crude may stabilize; larger draws could extend today's selloff.