TODAY'S SESSION RECAP

MCX crude dominated Friday's session, closing at ₹9722/bbl with a +6.85% gain on geopolitical supply concerns and overnight OPEC+ production signals. The commodity traded a ₹710 range (high ₹9774, low ₹9064), reflecting volatility across the morning. Metals moved inverse: copper fell -3.49% to ₹1374.85/kg, pressured by demand weakness from China's PMI miss this week. Gold retreated -1.02% to ₹152200/10g despite safe-haven flows, as USD strength at ₹95.53 weighed on rupee-denominated prices. NatGas edged +0.41% to ₹270.8/mmBtu on steady demand. Silver barely moved, -0.11% to ₹233850/kg.

HOW MCX CLOSED VS THE DAY'S RANGE

Crude closed at the top of its range—₹9722 near the session high of ₹9774—signaling bullish structure into close. Buyers held the upper band through the final 30 minutes, rejecting the ₹9064 support established earlier. Copper, by contrast, faded sharply from its ₹1430.9 intraday high, closing near the bottom of its ₹61-point range at ₹1374.85. This retrace from highs indicates profit-taking and weakening conviction in metals. Gold similarly pulled back from ₹154450 to ₹152200, retracing 1.5% of its intraday swing.

WHAT COMEX IS DOING NOW

COMEX is diverging from MCX crude's bullish close. WTI trades at $102.82/bbl (+7.05% on the day) but is consolidating—not extending higher into the US evening. COMEX gold at $4380.20/oz and copper are both fading, down -0.81% and -5.18% respectively. This divergence—MCX crude holding strength while COMEX retreats—suggests profit-taking into US equity hours and caution ahead of tomorrow's Asian open.

OVERNIGHT WATCH LIST

Crude: Watch ₹9774 resistance (today's high) and ₹9600 as support. US crude inventory data (EIA, Saturday morning IST) will reset sentiment.

Copper: The ₹1370 support (today's low) is critical; break below signals further weakness toward the 5-day low of ₹1370.

Gold: Monitor COMEX at $4380 overnight; any sustained break below $4370 will pressure MCX gold below ₹151400.

Overnight watch: US crude inventory release—any build will reverse crude's rally and set the tone for Monday's open.