TRIGGER — MCX Crude has plunged 7.40% to ₹7,636/bbl as WTI fell to $80.48 following an OPEC+ decision to accelerate output increases by 400,000 bpd effective July 2026.
PRICE — ₹7,636/bbl · ▼7.40% · PLUNGING
SIGNAL — OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, voted to unwind remaining voluntary cuts ahead of schedule, injecting an estimated 1.2mb/d of additional supply into an already-softening demand outlook.
TWIST — The twist: historically, crude drops of 7–9% on OPEC supply announcements have seen a 40–60% partial retracement within 5–7 sessions as physical buyers step in near multi-month lows.
CROSS-ASSET — MCX Silver is ▲4.38% at ₹2,51,994/kg and MCX Gold ▲2.32% at ₹1,53,215/10g, with the classic energy-sell / precious-metals-bid rotation firmly in play.
IMPORT COST — WTI $80.48 × ₹95.12 ÷ 159 × 1.025 (customs) = ₹49.40/litre implied crude import parity.
TECHNICAL — Price is trading just ₹26 above the 20-day range floor of ₹7,610 — the only structural support visible in the Kite OHLC data — with the 20-SMA at ₹8,584 now 12.4% overhead.
WATCH — A closing breach of ₹7,610 (day/week/month low confluence) would confirm the next directional leg; EIA weekly inventory data due Wednesday provides the nearest data-driven retest.