TRIGGER — MCX Nat Gas has fallen 3.41% to ₹297/mmBtu, breaching the 20-SMA of ₹304 as Henry Hub slides to $3.10/mmBtu in the overnight US session.
PRICE — ₹297/mmBtu · ▼3.41% · PLUNGING
SIGNAL — Henry Hub weakness is driven by above-normal US gas storage injections and softening summer cooling demand forecasts, pulling HH to $3.10 and dragging the MCX contract to session lows.
TWIST — The twist: ₹297 is simultaneously the day's support floor and the previous close — historically, when a commodity opens and closes at its support in a high-volatility session, the level has resolved decisively in the following session rather than holding as range.
CROSS-ASSET — MCX Gold is down 1.49% to ₹146,956/10g and MCX Silver is down 1.22% to ₹233,685/kg, confirming broad commodity liquidation rather than a gas-specific event.
IMPORT COST — HH $3.10 × ₹95.76 = ₹296.86/mmBtu landed parity — MCX is trading at near-zero premium to import parity, compressing margins for CGD and fertiliser offtakers.
TECHNICAL — Price is pinned exactly at the dual support zone of ₹297, having tested it once intraday within a session range of ₹294–₹307, with the 20-SMA at ₹304 now acting as overhead resistance.
WATCH — A close below ₹294 (week low) in the next session would confirm breakdown; the next EIA US Natural Gas Storage report confirms or negates the injection-led bearish thesis.