TRIGGER — MCX Crude has fallen 3.54% to ₹8,729/bbl, breaching the Hawk-Scan threshold as WTI settled at $91.54 amid a sharp intraday reversal from the session high of ₹9,130.
PRICE — ₹8,729/bbl · ▼3.54% · PLUNGING
SIGNAL — OPEC+ members signalled accelerated output unwinding for Q3 2026, adding an estimated 400,000–500,000 bpd to global supply expectations and compressing the Brent-WTI spread to $3.19.
CROSS-ASSET — MCX Silver is surging 2.19% to ₹2,47,683/kg while MCX NatGas is down 3.14% to ₹298.90/mmBtu — energy complex under broad liquidation pressure as silver draws safe-haven rotation.
IMPORT COST — WTI $91.54 × ₹95.71 ÷ 159 × 1.025 = ₹56.47/litre landed import parity.
TECHNICAL — Price is holding above the day-range floor of ₹8,655 and the weekly support of ₹8,572, but trades ₹277 below the 20-SMA of ₹9,006 — a level not recovered since the month-low of ₹8,205.
WATCH — A close below ₹8,655 (today's low) opens the round-number zone at ₹8,500 — EIA Weekly Crude Inventory report due within 48 hours is the key confirming data point.