MCX Market Open Brief — Thursday, 4 June 2026

1. Overnight Summary

COMEX and NYMEX overnight trade was defined by a classic risk-off rotation. COMEX Gold gained +0.57% to $4,490.82/oz while WTI Crude fell -0.61% to $95.17/bbl, a divergence consistent with defensive positioning ahead of the Asian open. COMEX Silver outperformed gold with a +0.79% move to $73.65/oz. COMEX Copper edged lower by -0.20% to $6.47/lb. Henry Hub Natural Gas slipped -0.43% to $3.23/mmBtu.

2. MCX Open Levels

Gold (₹154,332/10g, 0.00%): Opens flat at the previous close. Day range is ₹153,800–₹155,017. Immediate resistance sits at ₹155,017, then ₹155,297. Support is at ₹153,800, then ₹153,451. The 20-SMA at ₹158,028 remains well above current price.

Silver (₹263,150/kg, +0.07%): Fractionally higher. Resistance at ₹263,711, then ₹267,495. Support at ₹262,206, then ₹262,131. The 20-SMA at ₹272,942 sits approximately 3.7% above current price.

Crude (₹9,124/bbl, -1.26%): Sharpest mover at open. Resistance at ₹9,160, then ₹9,290. Support at ₹9,093, then ₹9,054. The 20-SMA at ₹9,142 is marginally above spot.

Copper (₹1,366/kg, -0.14%): Near-flat. Resistance at ₹1,367, then ₹1,369 — both extremely close to current price. Support at ₹1,366, then ₹1,364. A notably compressed intraday range.

Natural Gas (₹310.3/mmBtu, +0.13%): Slight gain. Resistance at ₹311, then ₹312. Support at ₹309, then ₹302.

3. Cross-Asset Connections

USD/INR at ₹95.71 is the translation layer for every COMEX move. A firmer rupee relative to recent history compresses the INR-denominated gain in gold — the +0.57% COMEX gold move lands as a 0.00% MCX open, illustrating the offset directly. The gold-silver ratio on COMEX sits near 61 ($4,490/$73.65), historically a compressed reading. Crude weakness and gold strength are moving in opposite directions, a spread that in past episodes has accompanied broader risk-aversion phases.

4. Import Parity Check — Gold (Largest Overnight Mover)

COMEX Gold: $4,490.82/oz ÷ 31.1035 g/oz = $144.38/g × USD/INR ₹95.71 = ₹13,820/g = ₹138,200/10g Add estimated customs duty + GST (~11.85% aggregate): ₹138,200 × 1.1185 = ₹154,577/10g MCX actual open: ₹154,332/10g — a difference of approximately ₹245/10g below theoretical import parity.

5. Watch Today

Three price points carry the day's directional weight: ₹155,017 in MCX Gold (day-high resistance), ₹9,093 in MCX Crude (day-low support), and ₹263,711 in MCX Silver (intraday ceiling). On the data calendar: the U.S. weekly jobless claims release is scheduled Thursday, directly relevant to dollar and gold positioning. The EIA weekly petroleum status report (delayed one day from Wednesday due to the U.S. holiday schedule) is also on watch for crude direction.

Key focus today: MCX Crude's ₹9,093 day-low support — a breach there extends the overnight NYMEX weakness into Indian session territory.