Overnight Summary

Energy dominated overnight trade as supply concerns drove WTI crude +2.72% to $96.38/bbl and Henry Hub natural gas +1.55% to $3.22/mmBtu. The move appears supply-driven rather than demand-led. Precious and base metals moved in the opposite direction — COMEX gold fell 1.17% to $4,467.17/oz, silver dropped 2.75% to $73.39/oz, and copper shed 2.79% to $6.49/lb — reflecting a broad rotation out of metals and into the energy complex.

MCX Open Levels

Gold opens at ₹154,800 (-0.48%), trading below the 20-SMA of ₹157,972. The ₹154,700 support is the immediate floor; a breach opens ₹153,451. Resistance sits at ₹155,297, then ₹156,000.

Silver opens at ₹262,900 (-1.43%), already below its day-range floor of ₹265,685. Support at ₹262,100, then ₹261,000. Resistance at ₹268,684.

Crude opens at ₹9,239 (+3.23%), clearing the day range high of ₹8,977 and the 20-SMA of ₹9,156. Support at ₹9,211 and ₹9,054. Resistance at ₹9,555, then ₹9,911.

Copper opens at ₹1,368 (-0.83%), sitting precisely at its 20-SMA of ₹1,370 and resistance cluster of ₹1,368–₹1,369. Support at ₹1,364, then ₹1,358.

Natural Gas opens at ₹310 (+2.35%), above the day range high of ₹308 and the 20-SMA of ₹302. Resistance at ₹310 and ₹316; support at ₹307, then ₹302.

Cross-Asset Connections

USD/INR at ₹95.71 is a meaningful amplifier today. A weaker rupee mechanically lifts MCX import-parity prices, cushioning gold and silver's COMEX declines in rupee terms and adding an additional layer to crude's already-large overnight gain. The gold-silver ratio on COMEX has widened sharply overnight — silver's 2.75% decline versus gold's 1.17% fall — historically associated with risk-off positioning within metals. Crude's divergence from copper (energy up, industrial metal down) reflects a supply-shock narrative rather than broad demand optimism.

Import Parity Check

MCX Crude — largest overnight mover (+2.72% COMEX)

WTI: $96.38/bbl × ₹95.71 = ₹9,225/bbl (base) Add ~5% customs duty estimate: ₹9,225 × 1.05 ≈ ₹9,686/bbl theoretical fair value MCX open: ₹9,239/bbl — trading at a ~4.6% discount to full import parity, consistent with typical MCX-to-NYMEX basis behaviour during sharp overnight gap-ups.

Watch Today

Three levels and events deserve attention:

  1. MCX Crude ₹9,555 — the first listed resistance; historically, gap-up sessions have seen price test this zone in past supply-shock episodes.
  2. MCX Silver ₹262,100 — the last support before the monthly low at ₹261,000.
  3. EIA Weekly Crude Inventory Report (Wednesday U.S. time, released Thursday morning IST) — the primary scheduled data catalyst for the energy complex today. Any draw larger than consensus historically reinforces supply-concern narratives already priced into overnight moves.

Key focus today: EIA crude inventory data and whether MCX crude sustains above the ₹9,211 support level after the gap-up open.