MCX Daily Open Brief — Tuesday, 2 June 2026
1. Overnight Summary
COMEX/NYMEX saw a sharply divergent session. WTI crude led the complex, rising 3.93% to $92.45/bbl — the dominant overnight move. COMEX copper gained 2.88% to $6.57/lb, driven by China demand signals and a broad risk-on tone. COMEX silver added 1.35% to $75.19/oz. COMEX gold slipped 0.90% to $4,513.47/oz, a divergence from the commodity risk rally. Henry Hub natural gas fell 4.92% to $3.19/mmBtu, extending its recent downtrend.
2. MCX Open Levels
Gold opens at ₹154,300/10g (−0.82%), below the previous close of ₹155,575. The 20-SMA stands at ₹158,094. Support to observe: ₹153,451 (weekly low). Resistance: ₹157,158 → ₹157,197.
Silver opens at ₹266,537/kg (−0.17%), near support at ₹265,929 → ₹264,949. Resistance: ₹269,400 → ₹269,901. The 20-SMA at ₹275,897 remains well above.
Crude opens at ₹8,758/bbl (+0.25%), already above its day-range high of ₹8,529, flagging an opening gap. Support: ₹8,749 → ₹8,568. Resistance: ₹8,865 → ₹8,880. The ₹9,000 round number sits 2.76% above.
Copper opens at ₹1,367/kg (+1.35%), pressing directly into resistance at ₹1,368 → ₹1,370. Support: ₹1,358 → ₹1,357. The 20-SMA is ₹1,371.
Nat Gas opens at ₹302.7/mmBtu (−4.21%), sitting between the 20-SMA of ₹302 and support at ₹302 → ₹296.
3. Cross-Asset Connections
USD/INR at ₹94.99 is a meaningful cushion. A weaker rupee amplifies COMEX gains in INR terms — crude's 3.93% COMEX rally translates with partial dilution at MCX open (+0.25%), suggesting the gap partly reflects the existing MCX session structure. The gold-silver ratio: COMEX gold/silver = 60.0, historically a compressed level. Copper's China-demand signal and crude's rally form a coordinated industrial risk-on narrative, while gold's softness reflects a temporary rotation away from safe-haven positioning.
4. Import Parity Check — Crude Oil (Largest Overnight Move)
WTI crude at $92.45/bbl × ₹94.99/USD = ₹8,781/bbl (base). Adding a standard customs duty estimate of ~3–5%: theoretical MCX fair value range ≈ ₹9,044–₹9,220/bbl. MCX crude opens at ₹8,758/bbl, approximately 3.2–5.2% below this theoretical import parity band — consistent with MCX pricing the domestic contract at a structural discount to full landed cost.
5. Watch Today
Three levels command attention: MCX crude ₹8,865 (first resistance — a close above historically precedes tests of ₹9,000); MCX copper ₹1,370 (weekly high — a sustained hold above has historically preceded range expansion); MCX gold ₹153,451 (weekly support — a breach would place price at the lowest level in four weeks).
Scheduled data on radar: EIA crude inventory report (Wednesday, 3 June — no release today but positioning often begins Tuesday afternoon); any Fed speaker appearances (FOMC communication remains active this week); India PMI Manufacturing final print (morning release today).
Key focus today: MCX crude oil's ability to hold ₹8,749 support and approach resistance at ₹8,865 following last night's 3.93% NYMEX surge.