TRIGGER — MCX Nat Gas collapsed 5.47% to ₹303/mmBtu, breaching the 3% Hawk-Scan threshold, with Henry Hub sliding to $3.19 in the same session.
PRICE — ₹303/mmBtu · 5.47% · PLUNGING
SIGNAL — Henry Hub weakness driven by above-seasonal U.S. storage builds and softer LNG export demand is transmitting directly into MCX pricing via the spot parity channel.
CROSS-ASSET — MCX Crude surging 4.26% to ₹8758 and Copper up 2.70% signal broad energy-complex divergence, with oil responding to separate supply-side catalysts while gas decouples.
IMPORT COST — HH $3.19 × ₹94.99 × 1.00 (regasification/duty blended) ≈ ₹303.02/mmBtu — MCX is trading precisely at import parity.
TECHNICAL — 20-SMA at ₹302 and structural support at ₹302→296 are the immediate floor; resistance begins at ₹304 then ₹310.
WATCH — U.S. EIA Natural Gas Storage report (Thursday) — a build above 100 Bcf historically sustains downside pressure below ₹302.